Sorting out the rumors

{NOTE: This is more of a commentary than a news-brief}

One problem with being in our (Guatadopt 's) shoes is that we are constantly asked to speculate on what will happen to Guatemala adoptions. Will current cases be affected? Will adoptions halt? Will Guatemala implement something that will satisfy the US?

While we occassionally get "clues" to what will happen, they are fragile instruments for major decisions. I can tell you when the ground starts shaking, but I can't tell you whether it will lead to an 8.0 earthquake. So, with that in mind, lets review the "shaking".

1) The US has stated that they intend to ratify the Hague sometime in 2007. I believe that they are going to officially ratify once they feel that the agency certifications are in place and the processes are stablized. 3 months after ratification is when they plan to enforce it. (You can read more on JCICS website, here is a PDF release from December which discusses it). DOS has told JCICS and FOA that they would support a transition if Guatemala passed a Hague compliant law or implemented Hague compliant processes.
2) The US will NOT apply Hague compliant rules to orphan petitions (I600As) that were filed prior to US ratification.
3) Guatemala - Currently, there is a lot of support in Congress to pass an adoption law that will be adoption-friendly but meet the Hague requirements. Yesterday, Kevin noticed that Prensa Libre reported that the new guidelines would be voted on soon. We are looking into any factual information to see "what" is being proposed or if that was a generic statement. But there is a lot of pressure from UNICEF and anti-mass-adoption folks (meaning those who are more interested in cutting down the number of children leaving Guatemala as oppsed to finding child-friendly solutions).

As a sidenote, if you do not understand the UNICEF comments, please refer to Families WIthout Borders who spent numerous hours putting together factual information on the subject of adoption and UNICEF. Their site recently changed (to .com) and the entire URL is http://www.familieswithoutborders.com/